IMAGE: Namibia Fact Check / Newzroom Afrika
A Newzroom Afrika report that was viewed by many and shared around in Namibian social media spaces refers to ‘polls’ that do not exist
The report broadcast on Youtube on 8 November 2024 by South Africa-based Newzroom Afrika was initially titled ‘Polls suggest Swapo to lose elections‘ and the show-notes accompanying the video read:
“In the lead-up to the 27 November general election in Namibia, polls indicate that Swapo, which has triumphed in all elections since Namibia’s independence in 1990, might face defeat for the first time. Nordic Africa Institute analyst and senior advisor Prof. Henning Melber discusses expectations on the upcoming elections.”
At the start of the video, the presenter makes the same claim as that which appears in the show-notes, that “polls indicate that Swapo … might face defeat for the first time”. The video has been watched over 28,000 times.
In the Youtube video, analyst Henning Melber points out that no election-specific opinion polls are conducted in Namibia to measure support for political parties or candidates. Melber points this out at the 6:25 – 6:33 minutes mark in the 13:14 minutes long video.
Melber points to the Afrobarometer survey as the only survey that asks Namibians about which political parties they support.
Regarding this, the Round 10 results of Afrobarometer were released in August 2024, and responses to question 98, which asked respondents to indicate which party they would vote for in the elections, indicate that about 51% of respondents would vote for Swapo. As this is the only public perception survey, or “poll”, that can be pointed to, it clearly shows the opposite of what the Newzroom Afrika report claims in its introduction.
Newzroom Afrika response
On 13 November 2024, Namibia Fact Check contacted the editor of Newzroom Afrika, Lukanyo Calata, via WhatsApp and asked what “polls” the Newzroom Africa report of 8 November was referring to.
Calata, responding on the same day, indicated that: “I’ve had a chat with the Producer and she says she scheduled the interview with Prof. Henning Melber based on this piece he wrote.”
The “piece” Calata provided a link to was an article authored by Henning Melber and published by The Conversation on 4 November 2024, under the headline ‘Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990’.
Melber does not refer to “polls” in the article or make a prediction that Swapo will lose the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections of 27 November 2024. He merely discusses the political situation in Namibia in the wake of the November 2019 and November 2020 elections and what the results of those elections potentially signify.
Newzroom Afrika’s Lukanyo Calata also stated the following in the WhatsApp correspondence: “During the interview the Prof then alluded to some polls.”
However, the only mention Melber makes of “polls” is to say that there are no public opinion “polls” in Namibia that specifically survey people on their political choices and preferences ahead of elections.
Despite not conceding that there were no “polls” that “suggest Swapo to lose elections”, following Namibia Fact Check’s approach Newzroom Afrika changed the title of the Youtube video to: ‘November polls to test Swapo’s electoral fortunes’.
And, the show-notes now read:
“In the lead-up to the November 27 general elections in Namibia, where liberation movement Swapo has been in power since independence, Nordic Africa Institute’s Prof. Henning Melber unpacks what to expect in the upcoming polls.”
However, the video still starts with the presenter stating that “polls indicate that Swapo … might face defeat for the first time”.
No such “polls” exist, so the statement is false.
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This is an output of and for the Elections Fact Checking Coalition of Namibian media and civil society partners combating election-related misinformation.